Hurricane Forecast Revised Upward For 2017
Weather forecasters, meteorologists if you will, are "best guessers". It's probably more accurate to say "informed guessers". While we, the public, want to know exactly what a storm may or may not do, Mother Nature really doesn't care what we want or think. The meteorologist's job is to at least give us a well-informed heads up.
That being said, some of the most accurate tropical forecasters in the business are at landlocked Colorado State University. Their hurricane predictions have been among the most accurate for several decades. With the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season yesterday. The team at CSU has issued their official forecast for the beginning of the season.
Just like the NOAA forecast, the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project has bumped up their predictions for the number storms we might see this season. The preseason forecast was calling for a below-average season, the new forecast suggests that based on conditions the season will be about average.
That means this: 14 named storms, 6 reaching hurricane strength, 2 reaching major hurricane strength. What are the probabilities of the Gulf Coast being affected by a hurricane this season? According to the CSU report, that number is 32%. Remember the Gulf Coast encompasses the area from the tip of Florida through Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and down to the southern tip of Texas. It's a large area for sure.
What are the probabilities that one of those major hurricanes could come ashore in coastal Louisiana? That number is 12%. Don't get all shakey just yet, the seasonal average is 11% so it's not a huge jump. The states with the best chance for a hurricane encounter this season are Florida and North Carolina.