Tropical Storm Sally will apparently be taking a page out of the Hurricane Katrina playbook. As we noted the other day the system has been on a similar trajectory since forecasters first began to monitor it last week. The forecast track of the system brings the center of what is forecast to be a category 1 hurricane on shore near the mouth of the Mississippi River and then northward very near the city of New Orleans.

Hurricane and tropical storm warnings have been posted for a large portion of the northern Gulf Coast. Hurricane warnings are in red, tropical storm warnings are in blue.The pink shaded area which runs from Morgan City to Grand Isle indicates the area that is under a hurricane watch.

nhc.noaa.gov

As always with any land falling tropical weather system there is a threat of storm surge. Most of the surge issues associated with this storm will be along the extreme southeastern coast of Louisiana and coastal Mississippi and Alabama. That doesn't mean that the New Orleans area couldn't experience some wash over of significance out of Lake Pontchartrain.

nhc.noaa.gov

Soon-to-be-hurricane Sally is also expected to be a prodigious rainmaker for a large part of the Gulf South. Here is the rainfall forecast for the area most likely to be affected.

wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

The track model guidance on Sally is suggesting landfall will happen sometime early Tuesday along Louisiana's southeast coast. There appears to be growing confidence in this model guidance. However, as we learned just a few weeks ago from Hurricane Laura, a track variance of 20 or 30 miles can certainly change the severity of the impacts from one location versus another.

In Acadiana our impacts from Sally should be minimal, assuming the current forecast are accurate. We can expect some gusty breezes and some passing tropical downpours as Sally moves onshore. We are most likely to feel those effects beginning late in the day on Monday continuing through Tuesday evening. However, this forecast is subject to change. In fact, it could change quite a bit in a very short period of time so, let's prepare for the worst and hope for the best.