Has Letlow’s Negative Louisiana Campaign Ads Helped or Hurt Her?

Louisiana’s Republican U.S. Senate race has turned into one of the nastiest political fights in the state, and now the big question is whether Julia Letlow’s attacks on John Fleming are actually helping her, or quietly helping him.

Negative Ads Work, But Only To A Point

LSUS political science professor Dr. Jeffrey Sadow told KEEL News on Tuesday that negative advertising does work, but he warned it is not the whole job.

“Oh, yeah, it works,” Sadow said when asked about negative advertising. But he added that it is “only half the equation.”

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That is the part campaigns sometimes forget. An attack ad may pull a voter away from one candidate, but that does not automatically move that voter into your column. Sadow said once a campaign detaches voters from an opponent, it still has to get those voters “into your camp.”

That is where this race gets interesting for Letlow.

Letlow May Be Winning The Air War

Letlow’s side has been trying to define Fleming before he can fully consolidate conservative voters who are ready to move on from sitting Senator Bill Cassidy. The attacks have focused heavily on Fleming’s border record, which is a dangerous place to be vulnerable in a Republican primary.

Polling gives Letlow’s campaign some reason to believe the strategy is working. Emerson/KLFY had Fleming barely ahead, 28% to 27%, in late April. A newer Quantus Insights poll showed Letlow jumping to 42%, with Fleming at 30%.

That does not prove the attack ads caused the movement, but it does show Letlow has not been knocked out by the ugliness of the race.

The Risk Is Her Own Image

The problem for Letlow is that negative ads can make the attacker look smaller if voters think the hits are unfair or overdone.

Sadow said Letlow has probably been hurt by the roughness of the race, especially because she “has not really been a tested candidate” in the same way. He described her as “a little flat-footed” in this type of campaign.

He also said Letlow’s strongest message may still be Donald Trump’s support, but that creates another challenge. If her best positive message is Trump’s endorsement, voters may still be left asking what she wants to do as senator.

Fleming’s Advantage Is Accessibility

Sadow contrasted Letlow’s media-heavy campaign with Fleming’s retail-politics approach, saying Fleming is “available to anybody any time.”

That matters in a primary where the most active voters often care deeply about issues, not just image. Sadow said Fleming has focused more on issues, while Letlow and Cassidy have leaned harder on mass advertising.

So Are The Ads Helping?

The honest answer is: probably some, but not without risk.

Letlow’s attacks may be helping slow Fleming and keep her in position for a runoff. But if the ads feel too harsh, Fleming could turn them into evidence that he is the candidate the political machine fears most.

For now, the ads are shaping the race. They have not settled it.