Tropical System Could Develop in Caribbean by This Weekend

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are currently monitoring two areas of disturbed weather for further tropical development in the Atlantic Basin this morning. Both tropical waves are located near a similar latitude but one is certainly much further out to sea than the other.

As you can see from the graphic provided by the National Hurricane Center the system that is currently located midway between Africa and the Windward Islands is the system that forecasters are most concerned about. They have given that system a 70% probability of developing into a tropical cyclone before the Fourth of July.

The current National Hurricane Center track guidance suggests the system will move into the Caribbean Sea. While that body of water is literally thousands of miles away from Louisiana anytime a tropical system moves into that part of the ocean, it bears watching by anyone with interests along the Gulf coast of the United States.

This satellite photo from NOAA really gives you a great perspective of just how far away both of these systems are from the Gulf of Mexico and Louisiana.

The system has been designated as Invest 97 by the Hurricane Center and almost all of the tropical weather models are picking up the system in their long-range forecast runs. Granted, these are model projections and not an official forecast, I do think this system will bear watching over the next four or five days.

The consensus of the model guidance is rather closely clustered together which should mean that confidence is relatively high in the path of the storm based on current data. That data does suggest this system will enter the eastern Caribbean and then make a turn to the north.

Exactly where the system is when it makes that turn will determine whether this system becomes an East Coast storm, a Florida Storm, or another storm that residents of the Northern Gulf Coast will have to deal with. The good news is that we still have the luxury of time.

Incidentally, the next system to earn a name during Hurricane Season 2021 will be called Elsa. I think that there is a very strong possibility that Invest 97will become Elsa sooner than later.

In the meantime, enjoy your July Fourth Holiday, and just remember to check back with us over the long holiday weekend for the latest on the tropics. Let's hope the only thing we will have to explain next week is how these Louisiana towns got their really unique names.