Triple Trouble in the Tropics as Ominous Anniversary Looms
The warm winds of August have certainly blown some ill will in Louisiana in the past. We know it's " prime time " for the tropical season when the calendar moves into August. Granted, the actual peak of the season doesn't come until September 10th, we know what August can bring.
Last year at this time the entire Gulf South was transfixed on Hurricane Laura. That storm would eventually move onshore in Cameron Parish and create havoc across the southwestern corner of the state. This year, the tropics don't look quite as mean but they do look very active.
The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring three different areas of disturbed weather. One of those areas could pose a problem for the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.
The other two systems are much further out in the Atlantic and model projections suggest they will not be an issue for the Gulf of Mexico. However, a system currently moving westward across the southern Caribbean just might pose a bit of a problem for certain interests in the Gulf.
Because of the potential threat to the Gulf, we'll focus on that system.
Right now the Hurricane Center is giving this particular system a 60% probability of spinning into a tropical cyclone over the next five days. The GFS or Global Forecast System Model, suggests this area of low pressure will strengthen off the coast of Honduras and Belize and then move northwestward eventually crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.
The waters of the Caribbean are very warm as are the waters in the Bay of Campeche, which is the southwestern Gulf. They are certainly warm enough to support tropical development and the GFS seems to suggest that extensive tropical development will happen as early as this weekend.
Right now, most of the model guidance does keep the system well to the south of Louisiana. In fact, the GFS solution brings this tropical entity onshore in extreme northern Mexico. The timing in the GFS solution suggests that will happen late Monday or early Tuesday of next week.
How or will this system affect Louisiana's weather? That remains to be seen but as of today, I would say there's no need to worry that much. But, if you've lived in Louisiana long enough you know that any tropical system that gets in the Gulf is worth watching. So, that's what we will do.
Meanwhile, the heat and humidity will continue to be our bigger weather issue for the next several days. Heat indices across much of South Louisiana could reach above 105 to 110 degrees this afternoon. So, please do take precautions if you have to be out in it.